大v追踪

@CarterChen18 Think $AMD was in talks of being a customer of $AAOI, from Rosenblatt channel checks. Could be an option, I'll ask around in the event.

It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.

Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer

If you’re curious why $NBIS is up after hours. $NVDA disclosed it owns 9.3% beneficial ownership of Nebius via SEC filings. Not exactly too new since it dates back to Nvidia’s existing share position of 1.19M shares + $2B prefunded warrant of ~21M shares. But great for sentiment having Nvidia be a large shareholder of the Neocloud leader.

TBH, casually posting novel information discovery to X is how research should be done. Apparently this was #16 on the Smale's list of Mathematical Problems for the Next Century? Kinda shows that the value generated from AI does not scale linearly with token costs... After seeing this, bears are still probably going to say: "B-but where's the profit coming from after AI usage?" AI + capex is likely going to keep going brrr.

$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.

Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates - HDI Boards: Over 6 months / Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787) - Multilayer boards: ~6 months / Victory Giant, WUS (002463), $TTMI, Gold Circuit Electronics (2368), - CCL: Over 6 months (severe shortages of materials) / Elite Material (2383), Shengyi (600183), TUC (6274), ITEQ (6213), Nan Ya Plastics (1303), Resonac (4004) Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / HVLP copper foil. Nittobo / glass fiber/cloth - MLCCs, chip resistors, tantalum capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 15-20 weeks to 1 year+ MLCC: Murata (6981), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), Yageo (2327), Walsin (2492) Chip Resistors: Yageo, Walsin, KOA (6999), Rohm (6963) and $VSH Tantalum capacitors: Kyocera/AVX, Yageo/KEMET, $VSH again Aluminum electrolytic capacitors: Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | Timelines sourced from Digitimes, did the honors of adding in related companies. But it's slightly more nuanced since MLCCs and others mix. in commodity types vs. AI DCs. Regardless, just some helpful mapping.

There’s nothing quite like the scent of more AI capex on a Sunday. Probably some ways to go if leading frontier models are out of capacity from too much demand.

@syl_52 I'm not posting anything actionable here. Just giving people a heads up on about ADR timeline conversion for SK Hynix on the 29th. And that it's likely premiums might converge if institutions decide to arbitrage.

- Sk Hynix mainly traded in Korea - $SKHY lists in the US with limited shares, ~2.5% of the float (this is called ADR) - Even though SK Hynix are the same company, the shares trade independently. - Sk Hynix US traded at a 20-50% premium to SK Hynix Korean listing due to limited supply, but lot of US demand. -> ADRs allow for conversion between Korea Shares to US Shares, and conversion will start on the 29th - If you convert 22.5% of the Korean supply to the US, that 20-50% premium is likely to go down eg. If there's limited mangos, and someone pays $3 for mangos. You buy the same mango for $1. You keep buying those $1 mangos and selling for $3 until the mangos pricing converge. That's called arbitrage and what likely traders would do.

For anyone watching the 25%+ premium in $SKHY versus SK Hynix's Korean shares: The ADRs and local shares become convertible on July 29. Should open the door for arbitrage and likely compress the ADR premium. Maybe lifting Korean shares or pressuring US shares. 2.5% currently is the US ADR stock, so an additional 22.5% can be converted.

Thanks! I’ve always shared personal research and core thoughts for free. Not trying to sell anything or tell others what to do. And above all, just being transparent about my own returns (win or loss) Maybe this information democratization upsets some business models… When others try and pitch their $40 TA subscriptions that are always right and predicted the semis crash. But if they really believed it, they would have made 5000%+ buying puts and wouldn’t need to market a paywall. Yes, if I’m on 1.4x leverage, and if a portfolio concentrated in memory/photonics underlying crashes -35% on avg… you get a 49% drawdown. I’m just sharing what happens. But I expect AI names to recover since I see demand from compute to energy to memory to networking to be structural.

Just culturally from what I’ve seen on X Koreans are already fully liquidated from leverage by the time they see the thesis play out. Chinese already sell the moment there’s a correction because they think institutions are harvesting them. Japan is somehow calm that Kioxia and others have dropped a lot. US tends to have more tolerance to volatility

If $AAOI are projecting $1.4B a quarter q3 2027 ($471m/month), which is $5.6B revenue annualized, (targeting 40%+ gaap gross margins). And they’re a $8B MC… Or if personal $SIVE CW Win capacity projections are around ~$400m midpoint array revenue off 60% gross margins. And that’s a $1B MC. Just applying a low 20 fwd p/e might rerate optical names considerably. Even with other names like $LITE, they’re completely sold out for the next 2 years, and having that sort of demand visibility… Is not a bubble. Europeans tend to use TTM to value companies while optical names are 2027-2028 growth stories.

The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences: I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest. Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling. And celebrating when everything AI from $MRVL to $NBIS to $INTC finally had a crash after a few hundred percent rally. Think it’s mainly a lack of understanding of technological shifts mixed with capital preservation culture vs. growth.

@waynexonline $AAOI themselves gave a $471m / month estimate starting H2 2027. If 800g gets revised up sharply across the board, that number might get hiked.

Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.

$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT

Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk? “As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail traders' accounts hit margin call lines, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts force-liquidated by brokers.” (There were other sources claiming this data came from Goldman Sachs desks rather than SK financial supervisory service data) Regardless, just evidence recent crash was accelerated by liquidation cascades/deleveraging rather than fundamentals:

Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.

@johnoao CPO hasn’t scaled up yet. Lot of their earnings come from 2028 TAM for FAU. There’s just a lot of uncertainty recently due to CPO delay reports and $GLW glass bridge.

@LetsGoBflo17 I actually like $IREN fundamentally post Mirantis acquisition. Since it combines software orchestration with their existing secured GW capacity. But not hopping onboard personally unless they address executive stock based compensation and financing mechanics though.

Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.

@pepemoonboy In Pepe we trust

@babybluecream Yeah, my $EWY longs crashed quite a bit. I still think the operating income that SK Hynix and Samsung produces will catch up to the MC eventually, so I’m holding my memory positions. Regardless, not a fun time to watch Asian markets from Nikkei to Taiwan to Kospi drop so much.

Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.

My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0.

I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now. A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%. So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops. But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.

Morgan Stanley listed $SIVE as the three core CPO laser players alongside $LITE and $COHR in their note 3 days ago. Fidelity Research, JP Morgan and others have started to take active positions. They recently raised an oversubscribed institutional round at 57 SEK. This is all ahead of US NASDAQ listing. I personally see short term liquidity disconnects relative to forward revenue around now and I'm sure institutions are capitalizing on it.

I think people tend to forget that $LITE went from a $3B valuation to $60B+ in 2 years time from owning the EML chokepoint. This was before the 9x TAM expansion to ~$154B per GS by H2 2028. $SIVE has the opportunity to dominate the next CW chokepoint with 1.6T and CPO. And it's sitting at ~$1.1B now.

Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.

I personally think valuations are extremely stupid now on $AAOI and $SIVE. With AAOI you're doing $5.62B annualized revenue (probably higher), by midpoint next year. And it's a $8B MC. With Sivers, I would est. it's close to ~5 forward 2028 P/E off 10% win allocation, 65% yield, and $75 ASP.

Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.

@StockSavvyShay Hope someone at X can fix this if there's enough visibility. Seems like a pretty critical bug.

I hope there's someone at X can fix this subscription bug. Many people are reporting that subscriptions don't renew anymore.

@XtineFang @nikitabier X is doing everything they can so I lose my spot to Elon Musk!

@OpenAI This is the best way to get bullied in public

Anthropic to IPO as early as October per Bloomberg. This is following their $65B financing at a $965 billion valuation last May. Hmm, would you all invest in Anthropic at a $1T+ valuation?

@SVTrivo No leaks yet on what companies $AAPL is buying. Regardless, my guess is that they're trying to become more self-reliant after what happened with $GOOGL + $META and OpenAI. Which would signal AI capex hikes, which markets definitely aren't expecting from someone like Apple.

@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.

@shopaholicdivas Maybe something like Sambanova or other inference companies is my guess. $AAPL is sitting on an absolute warchest right now.

$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information) Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend. But what if Apple joined the others after M&A? A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout. Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs. Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure. This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.

Yeah that's the unfortunate reality of headline algorithm trading nowadays. Sector tanks 20-50%+ off delay news, then causes cascading margin liquidations. "Delay refuted" news comes out, people still cast doubts over it, and markets focus on misleading delay reports weeks later over fundamental growth opportunities.

@avshushka Just forwarding the Rosenblatt channel check on optical sector weakness:

I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher. And this month seems like that time of year? $POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold out for the next 2 years, and likely into 2029 for photonics. Innolight confirmed 800g transceiver upward revisions 3 days ago, so that should be positive for $AAOI and the others. Samsung became the most profitable company in the world, and continues to project DRAM hikes for future quarters. $MU signed 16+ LTAs showing memory demand is structural... $META + hyperscaler capex plans are on the higher end of projections. I wouldn't conflate short term price movements with longer term trends. And as seen with $AEHR, recoveries tend to be extremely fast (eg. 1M of corrections wiped out overnight).

$NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang in Tokyo today said: "The reports are not true. Vera Rubin is already in production. Giant amounts of production incoming" As a flat denial to the accusation that their AI servers would be delayed. Jensen appears to be using the Umbrella term for Rubin Ultra/Kyber, then pointed to current gen ramp. Regardless, lot of damage has been done already to Nvidia supply chains stock prices, after the multiple delay reports. Even if Nvidia refuted them by clarifying Kyber change was an architecture optimization, not impacting timelines. It's a very dangerous and growing trend for folks to post overreaching broader claims from technical nuances to grow viewcount... Especially if they get Jensen has to respond. In the end, I'm trusting $NVDA on timelines since they probably have the greatest visibility into their own supply chain.

Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce. There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be: 1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market 2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share 3. SkyHigh Memory via Puya Semi: ~14% market share Given Micron at $1T and others are a bit large relative to SLC NAND TAM. (source: Q1 2026 Winbond presentation/Trendforce).

It's nuanced, $AEHR implications was more toward broader silicon photonics related ramp. Which could include 800g/1.6T pluggables, or CPO. If they directly named CPO, Msscorps would be a very clean readthrough. It just got hit really hard recently from that delay claim (even after $NVDA refuted it), since it's it's upside seems tied to CPO yields in specific. So it's positive, just uncertain.

@RiversSmith3 Bro I just came out from surgery, unfortunately I'm not able to listen to $AEHR earnings call while bleeding out thx.

$AEHR back up +36.4% today off earnings! 2027 guide: $130-$150m (160-200% growth) from 2026 revenue. Sees opportunity to guide higher (assumes no memory revenue or little to none from newly benchmarked AI customer). Q4 bookings: $60.7M, effective backlog is $100.6M. - Lead AI processor wafer-level burn-in customer is significantly ramping their products. - Engaged with additional AI processor customers who are evaluating wafer-level burn-in. - Benchmark customer, which was a “major supplier of AI accelerators, CPUs and network processors” “exceeded their expectations. From management: The potential revenue opportunity from one of these devices is "significant to Aehr". So another benchmark win for potential HVM in the future. - Wafer level burn-in benchmark with a "global leader in NAND flash completed". Now evaluating a development agreement for HBM/NAND Seems like $SNDK since there was HBF related discussions from last quarter I think. - "Our package level burn-in business for AI processors also gained momentum over the year … from our lead hyperscale customer for Sonoma systems" - Silicon photonics customer already ramping, newer networking customers has forecast additional systems Basically the amount of global semi companies that map to $AEHR is pretty ridiculous across silicon photonics, memory, AI processors, and others. I don’t quite think that $130-$150m guidance is representative of actualized revenue for 2027 if these hyperscalers/semi companies convert to HVM. Typically with these types of qualification into HVM players, markets don’t really judge it by current quarter, but what’s to come. And it looks very positive so far in terms of reactions... $116 -> $60 -> $94 all in the span of a month is pretty insane volatility tho, so good to know what you're holding.

$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done kinda reminds me of OpenAI, where they might not have the funds to actually execute on these LTAs yet compared to $META or $MSFT. But generally positive long term developments, customer diversification was one of the core strengths of Nebius.

Feels like algos often miss $SIVE, after slight $LITE / optical sector recovery after CPI print. Especially bc it's trading on some random Swedish exchange, but catches up on random days. That being said it's definitely on institutional radar, especially since MS put it next to $LITE and $COHR as the three leading CPO laser companies yesterday. Just waiting for things to play out, stocks don't move in a straight line up every day.

@cragents Don't really have any strong opinion on $IBM since don't know enough about all their revenue streams. Was surprising to say the least seeing it drop 24.3% in a day tho after ER.

Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities. Targeting $1.2B net profit, and $3.6B revenue in 2028 (with a ~$28B MC, that's ~23.3 2028 forward p/e). AAOI announced the commencement of its buildout, roughly 400,000 square feet of manufacturing to make 800g/1.6T production go brrr. The overall expansion is also supported by the local city government in Texas. (they also $20.85M worth of subsidies from the State earlier). This one isn't exactly as materially new as Tower, since AAOI originally announced these plans before. Just commencement of it. Regardless, glad to see both of these companies in their Anime training arc phase as they power up.

@macromonster69 Original article is in a different language, used AI to translate it to English for the usual audience

So Jensen himself went out to do damage control with $NVDA delays reports apparently: 1. Jensen Huang said no delays: - 800V and rack-to-rack optical interconnects is progressing fully in line with the original plan with no material delay. - Debunked the rumor that the next-generation flagship, Rubin Ultra, would be delayed until 2028 and said it would be on track to ship next year - Rack system optimizations, like replacing Kyber with a new design are architectural optimizations, not impacting delivery timelines. 2. On ASIC competition: no loss of market share. - Talked about how a leading frontier lab that previously relied heavily on internal ASICs has shifted nearly 50% of its compute load to Nvidia 3. On over-reliance on hyperscalers. - AI frontier labs currently contributing to ~20% of demand. - Traditional cloud providers, Nvidia provides Vera CPUs and high-speed networking - Sovereign AI

TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways: 1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations" Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand). Which is a bullish read through on US transceiver makers like $AAOI, $COHR, $LITE. Lot of new customers like neoclouds, AI model companies, contributing to overall demand rather than just hyperscalers, diversification always a bonus. 2. Innolight said the shortage covers the module supply chain broadly including: - Optical chips. - Electrical chips. - PCBs. - Other module materials From last ER, I think they singled out EMLs and CW optical chips as the most constrained. So Innolight's bottleneck list mention broadened since then. They expect some of the component availability to improve gradually from the second half of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Think a lot of this is already known from earlier though. But just some confirmation + easing timelines (EML is extremely bottlenecked, same with CW, this is probably talking about other components). 3. Innolight said module-production equipment is not the constraint. Equipment lead times remain relatively short. So this isn't really a bottleneck compared to others. 4. The overall proportion of silicon photonics continues to trend upward. Last year it was mainly 800G. This year, some 800G customers are further increasing their silicon-photonics proportion. 1.6T also added some new customers Positive for SiPH penetration eg. $SIVE / $JBL, since this shifts away from EML toward CW. Basically: main surprising takeaway is just 800g demand go brrr. Apart from that just reaffirming bottlenecks/timelines/market speculation.

@bottleneckceo 10 years from now, the flying spaghetti monster will descend from the heavens and bless every $INTC holder with a meatball. Can someone prove me wrong?

$AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins. Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers. CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And fits the OSINT research done with Ayar removing Macom from their website. So would agree with MS that $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR imo are the three leaders to focus on for lasers.

Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include: - $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply - Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms - Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics, - $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics foundry capacity I’ve covered all of these before, like Tower Semi. But I’m especially happy that Morgan Stanley validated my research that $SIVE is one of the critical global players in CPO. A small $1.5B laser company next to your two leading $60B+ companies… If you also synthesize Rosenblatt Securities recent note that China laser suppliers were quite far from having CPO lasers. This kinda magnifies importance of the three Western leaders of that laser chokepoint.

Just a semi recap TLDR: - $GLW glass bridge per Morgan Stanley has potential, but hard to displace FAU (like FOCI) in short term - $SPCX Starlink Gen 3 is scaling to 100,000 units (10x prev gen) creating possible capacity constraints for suppliers of switches to CCL. - PCB supply shortages are projected to persist until 2028, and component shortages/price hikes are already forcing ODMs like Inventec to issue conservative H2 shipment - DeepSeek and Zhipu are developing custom ASICs to bypass $NVDA (kinda expected by now). - Anthropic has achieved a $30B ARR and is projected to hit >$1B in Q3 profit. Turns out these frontier labs are more profitable than people think. - US admin pressured $AAPL to source from $INTC, in exchange for tariff exception. Kinda pressuring alignment away from TSM. - $TSM plans a 30x expansion of its Photonic Integrated Circuit (PIC) capacity by 2028, growing from 500 to 25,000 wafers per month - Hanmi Semiconductor is entering the CoWoS packaging equipment market - $NVDA and NTT hosting a conference July 24th to discuss CPO strategies. - 5x general NAND flash price hike this year, market size $489B by next year triggered by RAG/inference. Samsung and SK Hynix make emergency fab investments, NAND equipment suppliers go brrrr. - Gas turbine bottleneck, 40% supply gap accompanied by staggering 5-year delivery cycles (mega-fabs need them for mass production). - AI probe card assembly has hit a severe bottleneck apparently. Which is attempted to by solved with things like Innovation Service's machines. - Nanya, 79.5% gross margins reported, memory go brr. 4x capex for capacity/advanced packaging. - CXMT's STAR Market IPO on July 16, so should bring a lot of attention to memory players in that supply chain. - KYEC $1.4B investment into US for $TSM Arizona output test facilities. Lot of these players like $AMKR and others should go brr in 2028. - $INTC CEO warned last month that helium could hinder the manufacturing costs and delivery times of AI chips - 3D NAND word lines are shifting from Tungsten to Molybdenum starting at the 375-layer node - SambaNova secured JPM for AI inference and raised $1B at an $11B valuation. - HBM prices projections to double in 2027 as $NVDA Rubin platform drives demand. - $MU provides $500 million in funding to support GlobalWafers' US manufacturing capacity - $META 'Iris' will enter mass production in September via $AVGO and TSMC and Meta aims to double computing power to 14GW by 2027. - Largan Precision has secured its first CPO FAU order, mass production slated for middle of next year (kinda indication around Foci and others). - Samsung and SK Hynix have delayed the implementation of hybrid bonding packaging technology for HBM4 apparently - Memory costs (DRAM/NAND) have reached 60% of the BOM for sub-$400 smartphones, causing a severe volume contraction. - SK Hynix successfully rasied $26.5 billion through a Nasdaq ADR - $TSLA issued procurement guidelines requiring suppliers to reach weekly production of 1,000 units by September and double to 2,000-2,500 by year end for its 3rd gen Optimus robot. Apparently Alliance Technology and A-Link may be in this supply chain harmonic reducers and vision lenses? Kinda go through all this stuff every day, but don't wanna be a news reporter so just consolidated stuff I found interesting.

Looks like the Strait of Hormuz is open for the 50th time this year per Trump. I’m getting tired looking at macro.

@softmaxedx My friend at $AMD tripped on a rock and had to spend a few hours at home. So we’ll likely see a major delay at AMD’s entire GPU program.

@Traderissimo So this was cost of the final sale price, not BOM cost. They were also using $134K at ASP, not the volume ramped <$20k costs. As seen with $VPG that $750/sensor goes down to $150 at mass production. So lot of math changes, I didn’t find the cost structure particularly helpful

Apparently there’s a new popular trend to bearpost trillion dollar companies. Like $NVDA or $TSM. By finding isolating technical details, then blowing it out of proportions by claiming their whole program is delayed. -> if the company doesn’t respond, stock prices/sentiment are damaged. -> if the company issues a response, they can’t go into detail since supply chains are confidential… but people still doubt them -> Poster gain more impressions, then does it again with more views the next time. Don’t quite think this is very healthy, with more folks copying that playbook. Especially around incentive structures.

So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month. Just a summary: IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers: - Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs - LG Energy (373220) / battery - Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration - Hyundai Mobis (012330) / actuators As for humanoid volume ramps: They're modeling for, 11.29K in 2028, 20k 2029, 30k in 2030... 40k in 2031, and 50k in 2032. Not quite sure why IBK and other institutions are a fan of linearly modeling S-curve volume ramps... Like adding +10K per year, don't quite think it's volume ramp is going to work like that... if I had to guess it would look more like: - 15-20k 2028 - 40k-70k 2029 - 90k-140k for 2030 Since Boston Dynamics is projecting 30k capacity by 2028 (I'm sure they'd aim to get more online by 2029-2030), as China collectively is already doing 100k EOY in 2026. In terms of competitive landscape they name: - $TSLA, Figure, Apptronik, $CCXI (Agility), as US players. Then Boston Dynamics (Korea parent owned now) - Unitree, Fourier, AGibot, UBtech, $XPEV as the Chinese leaders. - Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, Oversonic, as the EU leaders. They also did quite a lot of valuation modeling around Hyundai Mobis/Hyundai Autoever/Glovis. Regarding the BD economic ownership from 27.9% from Hyundai Motor, 11.3% from Mobis, and 11.3% from Glovis. So at least institution are valuing humanoid segments inside companies lot more now. Then from report assumptions: - 31 actuators per Atlas - $1K per actuator in 2028 - $134K Atlas ASP, Which implies actuator cost of final selling price is roughly 23–28%. Probably the more interesting statement was IBK stated that actuator capacity is biggest signal for volume ramp. eg. every 310,000 units of actuator capacity supports 10,000 more robots. So tracking actuator outputs, yields, ASP is a cleaner read on 2028-2030 ramp. I didn't have much personal takeaways, but hopefully others find it interesting, maybe around Hwashin as a core supplier or around actuator capacity as an indicator.

@BtMIV6TSQ572728 This is half satire. It's hard to understand nuances when Grok is translating it.

@TheWaitingGameX I'm going to learn how to trade cash-settled Salmon futures next, so I can put it in my bio.

@ANMcapital APR might be priced in. But maybe salmon DNA processing might be a new bottleneck from the amount women use for face lotion...

Apparently, Korean Beauty was where all the alpha is. APR (278470.KS) is up 529% over the past 2Y, wildly outperforming both $NVDA and $INTC. Every female I know talks about their "Medicube" stick, then buying products... where you put a whole salmon's family tree on your face for better skin. The world's female population creates a bigger structural demand than hyperscalers for memory or lasers? Should have known...

@sama Wow, gpt-5.6 sol is getting really good at writing these comebacks

@jaredisathome Strange everyone’s already taking allegations as a fact. Looks credible, but companies file lawsuits all the time to slow down competitors.

He wouldn't have build a $1T company without pulling off all those moves. - Gets funding from Elon -> Pisses off $TSLA going independent - Gets funding from $MSFT -> Pisses of Microsoft by diluting them with other hyperscaler funding - Gets funding from $NVDA -> Builds their competing chip and funds Cerebras competitors for inference - Works with $AAPL on Apple Intelligence? -> Create their competing devices. - Potential lack of funding? -> Sign a lot of LTAs so the entire industry lives or dies off OpenAI succeeding. Whatever he's doing is working lol.

Contrarian take, but Sam Altman / OpenAI is doing something right if he's pissing off every Mag7 like $AAPL. By building their own ecosystem instead of being sucked into another. It's been awhile since $GOOGL, Apple, Microsoft, and others had some genuine disruptors.

@siflower It’s architecture neutral. UHP output can be achieved with a single cw laser or multi emitter cw dfb array which is what $SIVE is doing for CPO. Since the latter aggregate output is comparable.

Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers. The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise. On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach. Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happens to supports my core $SIVE thesis. I feel like Rosenblatt and I share the same views on a lot of things, I like the way they roll.

Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE: "Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares. "We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis." Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August. Further, they say they plan to buy Optical stocks in 2027 for the scale up CPO opportunity. Hilarious report on laser weakness, read is very positive for $SIVEF, $COHR, and others moving forward. I've been long on CPO sector, but seems like institutions want entry points, just a bit later on.

@yuntungshieh Hmm, maybe the influx of US buying pressure might have have a structural impact though? But I'm sure that's probably the case with a premium as seen with $TSM.

@2147gp Yep I'm very excited for the $SIVE US listing. Majority of people can't access it on small Swedish exchanges.

Sk Hynix is now trading under $SKHYV! It's now up an insane 16%. I wonder how Sk Hynix over in Korea is going to react on Monday.

Why do I have this weird feeling the main reason retail is excited SK Hynix NASDAQ listing. Is because they can do degen option calls instead of individual stock purchases.

My guess is humanoids will be more widespread then cars. People see the "50k-100k+" BOM cost now and think humans can do better. But it's about the future: I think both ubiquity/cost will end up like computers. And technologically, we'll see humanoids outperform humans in most physical tasks from basketball to surgery, similar to how AI was able evolve to beat humans in almost everything academic. So down the line, I think costs to make a humanoid at scale will keep getting compressed, optimized, and compressed down to <$5k over time. While underlying technology improves to displace work over a longer term horizon.

Mitsubishi Motors joins robotics race to deploy humanoid workers by 2027. Pairing with Highlanders, a Japanese robotics company. - Agility $CCXI x Foxconn, Toyota - Apptronik x $JBL, Mercedes - Highlanders x Mitsubishi - Figure × BMW - Boston Dynamics x Hyundai (subsidiaries) - Optimus x Tesla (Internal) - Rainbow Robotics x Samsung (subsidiaries) Idk if it's just me of there's a lot of patterns with humanoid companies playing buddy-buddy up with a major auto player/manufacturer. If they're not already vertically integrated by one already. Then the Chinese players like UBTech/AgiBot/Unitree don't seem to care and work with a wide variety of auto players in China. Curious how this trend plays out...

I blocked them since they're known for spreading disinformation. Especially after it was exposed around their short seller activity, that there were marketing accounts telling people to sell. These accounts had histories of promoting the same Asian crypto launches. - They spread defamation like saying I used AI to fabricate reports on CW laser LTAs from $AMD, despite the report coming directly from Trendforce. Then they tried to hide references to the actual source after they were proven wrong. - I didn't sell a good chunk of my $SIVE position, I own 1M+ shares (not USD) as one of the largest individual shareholders. Don't see a reason to exit my position since I'm trying to own as much as possible before 1.6T pluggables and CPO architectural inflections hit. Better not to give malicious accounts additional views.

@UNICONTSLA On the $AAOI chart, we're able to see the "Sleeping King" indicator. You can see the crown form from the chopping patterns. But once the king wakes up from their nap... chart fundamentals expect a royal decree.

The "Mythical Golden Egg Dragon Candle" predicted the $SIVE rally today. If you look at the Golden Egg hatching indicator I drew, you can tell it predicts Sivers CEO buying on the open market a day later. Do you guys think it's time I should sell courses on TA?

Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally changed: $LITE is still completely sold out for the next 2 years and likely into 2029. $SIVE is about to volume ramp with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscaler suppliers. $TSM COUPE and their TW suppliers from Shunsin to Foci aren’t randomly disappearing into the void. $AAOI and their $471m/month h2 2027 revenue projections haven’t changed. $IQE and their epiwafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi haven’t disappeared. $AXTI ownership of 40% of the InP substrate supply chains haven’t suddenly disappeared. As with any theme from Rocketlab + Space sector 50% drop back in 2025. Or Nebius + Neocloud 50% drop entering 2026. Or the Samsung/SK Hynix crash from Iran War LNG/Helium/Oil fears few months ago. Volatility from indiscriminate thematic selloffs isn’t typically representative of individual company fundamentals. Retail tends to build conviction over price movements and imaginary charts, then lose that when a stock drops. And institutions are probably placing limit orders to capitalize on that. Conviction shouldn’t be tied to the quote of a stock on a certain day, but long term revenue or operating income growth.

It's nuanced, IMO: - $TSLA has the clearest path to close the gap between US/China in mass production. But to get this done, majority of components seem sourced from China? - $CCXI right now has a RoboFab for 10K+ units/year, and 75%+ of components sourced from the US. So they're probably the leader in terms of Made in America supply chains + commercialization. But can't get to China scale yet through just US supply chains. Figure is probably the other one with 12,000 target capacity, but can't comment much since their supply chain visibility isn't very public. I don't consider Hyundai/Boston Dynamics to be very American anymore so didn't include them.

"China is shipping ~90% of the world's humanoid robots. We cannot keep taking them lightly." Elon's comment: "For now" Meanwhile, 1X today posts a video of the most advanced humanoid hand. Looks like the inflection point for American humanoid programs is here? Both technologically with players like 1X and with mass production with $TSLA? I'm am personally long on Agility through $CCXI targeting commercialization with Amazon and others. But I'm proud to see American robotics as a whole go brrrr.

$SIVE US NASDAQ listing is more for: - Fundraising (most important thing) to acquire IP + TAM expansion and make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did (eg. Cloud Light acquisition) from just selling lasers. - Also it helps bridge valuation gaps, since I see it as undervalued relative to laser peers that are all in the tens of billions. Rather than near term revenue/partnerships.

@JN9191 It's for NASDAQ dual listing to align themselves with US PCAOB standards.

Three new $SIVE insider purchases today. Most notably: $SIVEF CEO Vikram bought 1,000,000 SEK worth of shares on the open market today. This is following the massive drop on Sivers stock following 2 misleading CPO delay reports, Meta Compute headlines, and another insider sale report from another photonics director. Typically, insider sells for any number of reasons. But having the CEO buy on the open-market is the clearest signal in management confidence. Following $GFS, $JBL, and other laser supplier partnerships, and his goal of NASDAQ listing in the near term. Feels like the CEO sees a clear potential for Sivers to become the next photonics giant (myself included).

@finkd Wow Zuck is both back on X and to the LLM race.

@Goodly2016 I just the algo gods just missed $SIVE after $LITE and the laser names pulled a recovery.

@KostasMoschovas Biggest surprise of the century. Institutions probably bought all the retail margin liquidations recently.

Nothing like an internal $META memo getting published. Showing AI ramping as usual: - LTAs signed with Samsung and $SNDK for memory - LTAs signed with Sumitomo Electric for fiber optics - Expected to deploy 7GW compute infra this year, and doubling in 2027. - as much as $145B capex spend this year “It plans to launch a chip about every six months through 2027”

Wow, looks like Elon + xAI at $SPCX managed to build an Anthropic Opus-level LLM with Grok 4.5. That’s much more cost efficient as well… Kinda emulating what Chinese vendors have been doing to compete on pricing + adoption. (Which is an ideal thing given Chinese model growth among US companies recently) Never doubt Elon, maybe they might end up leapfrogging Anthropic + Mythos?

@starlightrvrie Yep still holding $AXTI. And a lot of my older thesis like $EWY that are up hundreds of percent. Even if I don’t mention it as much anymore

$META to build a new $10B DC in Canada to expand AI capacity. So much for the media framing of “Meta Compute”as overbuilding and cutting capex.

I currently hold shares in the million range, so not quite sure what’s with these accusations. Since I believe $SIVE is one of the most important laser companies in the next optical shift… and has immense TAM expansion potential with IP acquisition. Nasdaq listing is coming up… volume ramp is coming up… I think I’m fine and know what I’m holding